@TBPInvictus right here:
Final yr completed with a flourish. The work I do right here was instantly accountable for the Hoover Establishment retracting six (sure, 6) of its articles. Whether or not it was shoddy information evaluation or a deliberate try to misinform, I discovered it offensive and introduced the receipts as to the basic errors within the financial evaluation.
A lot of the retractions involved California’s April 1, 2024, improve within the minimal wage for “quick-serve eating places” (QSR, often known as fast-food) staff, which went from $16/hr to $20/hr. On cue, conservative heads exploded en masse, simply as they did a decade in the past when Seattle raised its minimal wage.
Let’s put California’s QSR employment in a broader context.
QSR, or limited-service restaurant employment is represented by NAICS code 722513. You’ve bought your Starbucks, Mickey D’s, Yum Manufacturers, Wendys, and so forth. A technique I assumed I’d study California’s QSR employment is by evaluating it to that of a comparable giant state, akin to Texas.
Right here is NAICS code 722513 for California and Texas, listed to 100 as of January 2013. The information come from BLS’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW, broadly thought to be among the many most correct of BLS’ datasets:
What we see is that QSR employment progress between the 2 states moved in lock step for seven years, from Jan 2013 proper as much as the start of Covid. The correlation between January 2013 and pre-Covid peak of March 2020 is 0.994. When Covid struck, the 2 states went their separate methods in coping with it, California selecting to guard its citizenry and Texas not a lot. Doubters are invited to overview the dying charges for the 2 states (by way of CDC):
California QSR employment took an even bigger hit and has been slower to get better, however misplaced far fewer folks to Covid. Commerce offs, I suppose.
Right here’s the rub, although: Whereas the 2 states’ QSR employment has moved in digital lock step, California has been elevating its minimal wage all through, for over a decade, whereas Texas has remained on the non-living wage of $7.25/hour.
As talked about above, for seven years – from January 2013 to March 2020 – CA and TX QSR employment moved nearly identically, the correlation between them 0.994. Throughout that seven yr interval, nonetheless, TX had a flat $7.25/hr minimal wage whereas CA elevated its minimal wage by 50%, from $8/hr to $12.
